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Mar. 16th, 2007
03:41 pm - Electability
Electability is an electoral proposition. Electoral viability means
holding party strongholds, putting as many swing states as possible in
play, and winning the turnout game in those states.
What this means for 2008 is that the primary elections aren't the only
wide-open races to be contested-- the entire pool of swing states will
be difficult to analyze/characterize:
- We will most like see a "socially moderate" Republican nominee.
Rove's political machine was famous for getting out the vote of the
Christian right. They could stay home unless the nominee has a
revelation and is "born again."
- We could see a black or female Democratic nominee. Black voter
disillusionment is a big issue, and there is only room to grow in
terms of turnout. Women are already ahead of men in terms of turnout,
and could easily make the difference if a pro-life Republican is in the
race. The question is, will being black or a woman ultimately be a
hindrance to garnering the support of independent voters? I don't
think so. Has being a "strong woman" hurt Hillary Clinton's image over
the last decade and a half? Yes, but it's the image that's been
damaged-- her chief attribute(s) according to Joe Q. Public is
"polarizing/liberal/calculating," and not "woman." Barack Obama has
ascended to Democratic rock star status on the strength of his
"inspirational" rhetorical skills and "youthful charisma." Current head-to-head match-up polls
show Clinton (nowhere to go but up in terms of unfavorables) and Obama
(still lacking in name recognition) holding tight with Giuliani
(nowhere to go but down in terms of favorables) and McCain (tied up
with his Iraq war stance). My bet is that the portion of unconsciously
racist/sexist independents out there will be significantly outweighed
by those who find significant problems with the Republican nominee and
the Bush administration, or those who think Clinton is too poll-arizing,
Obama too inexperienced, etc. In other words, I don't see race/sex as being
statistically significant. As far as the claim that polls like this don't
take into account observer bias, I point to the TN Senate contest in 2006 where
race was brought into play by Bob Corker's infamous Playboy mansion ad.
Harold Ford's election day numbers not only matched, but in fact, exceeded
polling predictions. So the idea that people change their minds as they enter the voting booth is probably pure fiction.
- Although a moderate Republican has the potential to attack
Democratic strongholds, this perceived strength could ultimately be a
detriment if it spreads money too thinly across too wide a playing
field.
- The bottom line is that swing states grossly reflect: a) the mood of the country (Bush's approval rating, Congress' approval rating, the economy) and b) the "lameness" of your candidate. Perhaps the Democrats' should quit worrying about "electability," and start worrying about "lameness," given that Criteria A was decidedly in their favor in 2000 and 2004.
Mar. 8th, 2007
03:41 am - Will He or Won't He?
He will. Not now. Sometime in January '09. Unless Libby didn't fall on the sword cleanly enough, he will most certainly be pardoned.
I can understand why the Democrats are anxious about the political cost of cutting off funding for the war, but I cannot fathom why they aren't calling this administration to account for its illegal buildup to and management of it. This is not a vindictive issue, rather it is a moral one-- thousands of American lives, not to mention tens of thousands of Iraqi lives, have perished in a war predicated on deceit, and Congress needs to use its oversight power to check this outrageous and egregious overreach and manipulation of executive power.
Let's start with Libby's boss.
Mar. 6th, 2007
02:20 pm - Oops! She Did It Again?
In spite of the Democratic intelligensia assembled around her (her campaign chair is Terry McAuliffe, the genius that orchestrated the massive Democratic electoral successes of 2004), Senator Clinton doesn't seem to realize she's made a big mistake by drawing out (and thus elevating) her most formidable competitor in recent weeks.
Parsing the polls, Hillary will probably continue to consistently draw 50% of the women's vote, which, if we do the math, makes it very easy for her to assume she is working from a 25% baseline in any given primary, which is what makes her such an imposing front-runner in a MULTI-CANDIDATE primary battle. Still, just as with Howard Dean in 2004, there is a significant contingent in the Democratic party (~40% = vote totals for Edwards + Obama) that, operating on the "electability" principle, represents an equally imposing anti-Hillary voting bloc.
Geffen's fundraiser was one of many Hollywood fundraisers that usually go unnoticed (even as they raise millions of dollars) in the primary season. The Clinton camp's strategy was to try and soil Obama's "clean campaigning" pledge with their own underhanded tactics (repeatedly and baselessly they referred to Geffen as Obama's campaign finance chair). While successful in the short-term, the story saturated the political airwaves for an entire week, reminding voters of why they are skeptical of Senator Clinton, and transforming the Democratic primary contest from Hillary vs. The Others to Hillary vs. Obama. To make matters worse, she decided to go down to Selma on Sunday to speak and march at a day full of events commemorating Bloody Sunday, after Obama had already been invited by the organizers several weeks earlier.
The Clinton campaign has greatly elevated arguably the strongest challenger to Hillary's coronation. What should especially trouble the Clintonites is that Obama is not this campaign's Wesley Clark-- he is compelling of his own merit, and not simply as a Hillary alternative. And, of course, lurking on the sidelines is the only guy visiting IA and NH right now, and staying above the fray-- John Edwards.
Jan. 4th, 2007
11:00 pm - Recommendation
If it's playing near you, go see Letters from Iwo Jima in a theater.
Nov. 5th, 2006
01:11 pm - The Smoking Gun
Well, it was both the worst and best kept secret in Washington that Hussein's sentencing would take place a couple days before Election Day. Now, we must see to what degree the DNC has a strong, well-vetted, and coordinated response to this "wag the dog" event, which will inevitably dominate news cycles for Sunday and Monday.
I awoke this morning to 15 minutes (!) of free, positive press for President Bush and his war, with about 1 minute of critical evaluation of both the sinister timing and lack of significance of the verdict. Coupled with Senator Kerry's prolonged gaffe last week, it seems that we can toss all polls out the window-- anything can happen on Tuesday, and I'm really nervous (and angry).
Jul. 9th, 2006
04:44 pm - Karma
What an unfortunate way to end a great game...
A legend losing his cool in the last game of his career.
A penalty shootout.
That said, I think karma had a lot to do with this game--
1. Italy got a questionable call to win against Australia, and France benefits off a similarly dubious call drawn by Malouda on Materazzi.
2. After having cried 'wolf' for much of the match, Malouda gets pushed down by Zambrotta in the box at 54' with no call.
3. Finally, Italy had lost on penalties in Germany '90, USA '94, and France '98-- the coin flip had to go their way at some point.
PLAY OF THE GAME
Buffon's superhuman save on Zidane's header. I think he deserves the Golden Ball, but I dunno if they'd give it to a goalkeeper two Cups in a row...
Meanwhile, somewhere, the Altilio clan is smiling over a big bowl of pasta fagioli at The Olive Garden with all the waiters singing and dancing. Mamma mia! Che bella! Viva Italia!
Jul. 5th, 2006
07:21 pm - Bill Simmons is an idiot...
Bill Simmons is an idiot…
In so many ways, it’s tough to know where to begin.
I guess my main qualm is the obnoxious, stereotypically American protest that:
a) nothing ever interesting happens in soccer, b) there’s all this silly diving, c) there are all these silly customs (injury time, cards, singing), and d) it only happens once every four years.
(A)
If he paid his morning coffee a little bit less attention, he might discover that there’s a lot happening on the field. There is much in the way of athleticism, physicality, strategy, and displays of individual brilliance that soccer has to offer. If he would only try taking a closer look at the action on and off the ball, he might be surprised at how beautiful a game it is.
(B)
Yes, there is diving, but this isn’t unique to soccer. It’s a travesty when a team so shamelessly uses it as strategy (e.g. Portugal), or when it decides a match (e.g. Italy-Australia), but the subjectivity of referees and poor sportsmanship are things to which no sport is immune. In fact, soccer refs inject themselves into the game far less often than do those of the major American sports. And there is far more physical play permitted than in Mr. Simmons’ beloved basketball. And most of the players stay on the field for a full 90 minutes. David Beckham threw up on the pitch after having probably already lost 1 L of sweat already from his body—and kept playing! These guys often need intravenous hydration after especially grueling matches! How can anyone possibly insinuate that these guys aren’t tough?!?
(C)
Silly customs? These “silly customs” pale in comparison to how a foreigner would view the intricacies and peculiarities of baseball or football! In fact, soccer is probably as simple and fluid as it gets—a ball and a goal, minimal ref involvement, no stoppage of play, and very few subsititutions allowed.
(D)
Yes, it does happen once every four years—for most Americans. But the rest of the world is watching it all the time. There are leagues all over the world, from London to Lisbon, Buenos Aires to Beijing, Taipei to Torino. There is always soccer action, year-round, even in the smallest cities of the poorest countries.
Of course, for Bill Simmons, any sport at which the Americans are not the best, any sport where the American championship can’t be obnoxiously labeled “World Series” or “World Championship” must be illegitimate. Any sport played by people with funny names whose fans sing funny songs is little more than a curiosity, akin to a bear riding a tricycle. However, it’s one thing to be ignorant, but speaking with arrogance from a perspective of ignorance just makes you look like a dumbass.
Speaking of which, I think Isaiah "Roster ADD" Thomas still has his job, Bill.
May. 31st, 2006
08:57 am - Interesting Thought, But...
From The New York Times:
"Advocates of tougher border security have sent thousands of bricks to Senate and House offices in recent weeks to make a none-too-subtle point with lawmakers about where many of their constituents come down on emerging immigration bills.
Leaders of the campaign, which has delivered an estimated 10,000 bricks since it began in April, said they had hit on the idea as a way to emphasize the benefits of a fence along the border with Mexico.
In an age when professionally planned lobbying campaigns have long since overwhelmed spontaneous grass-roots pressure, organizers of the brick brigade said they also saw an opportunity to deliver a missive not easily discarded."
My question is how will they have any bricks left to build their wall?
May. 8th, 2006
10:31 pm - I Can't Quite Place the Face...
It looks like President Bush is looking to Hollywood for intelligence.
Seriously, though, did he just nominate the dad from "That 70's Show" as his new CIA director?
Kurtwood Smith 
Gen. Michael V. Hayden
May. 6th, 2006
11:06 pm - Drub-A-Dub-Dub
Nix that. Perhaps a new site-- "got-zen.com" (or the more risque/libelous "barbosa-outscored-therapist.com")...
May. 5th, 2006
01:40 am - Tim Thomas Is the New Zen
1. Hell friggin' yeah.
2. Doug Collins is the new Ahmad Rashad-- perhaps he isn't aware of Kobe's "courtship" issues.
3. I think I saw Mike D'Antoni joking around with Jack Nicholson during a fairly tense moment towards the end of the game. Kinda odd...
Apr. 30th, 2006
07:58 pm - A Rebirth?
Some have lamented the demise of damnlakers.com...
Is a rebirth in the offing?
Mar. 6th, 2006
11:49 pm - Priorities
induced abortions in the U.S. - 800,000 per year
tuberculosis deaths worldwide - 2.4 million per year
malaria deaths worldwide - 1.5 to 2.7 million per year
AIDS deaths worldwide - 3 million per year
spending by major anti/pro gay marriage groups in 2003 - $300 million ($250 million of this was spent by anti-gay marriage groups)
global tuberculosis spending by US gov't - $326 million
global malaria spending by US gov't - $246 million
global spending by US gov't - $2.9 billion
Dec. 21st, 2005
05:31 pm - Response to Mayor Bloomberg
You say that the strike is making you "really angry."
You know what makes me "really angry," sir?
You. Big business. Big business buying elections. You're not beholden to any special interests because you are the special interest!
You claim that you don't know what's going on with the transit talks ("I seem to recall from reading the newspaper..."), yet seem to have more than a few opinions regarding the specifics of offers, counteroffers, and bargaining strategy. The leader of TWU-Local 100, Roger Touissant, seems incredibly convinced that his negotiating partner, MTA's Peter Kalikow (former owner of the New York Post), has his hands tied by yourself and Governor Pataki. Now what would give him that impression?
You also claim that the working poor suffer most with this strike, and yes, in the short-term they do. But what about the decline and fall of organized labor in this country? Private-sector union membership has declined from 36% to 8% in the last fifty years. What's more, most (84%) union members live in only 12 states. You claim that we all need to sacrifice a little bit more in the future, and that the 'selfish goons' in the TWU-Local 100 care nothing for their fellow citizens. You could not be further from the truth-- they are the real heroes here, selflessly sacrificing their reputation and their paychecks to ensure the preservation of pension benefits for their successors. Their success will be the success of all. No other union has quite this sort of "nuclear-level" economic force and it is important that this struggle come out as a victory for labor. Should they lose, the door will be open for similar pension cuts levied by Albany in future bargaining with teachers, cops, firefighters, etc., and organized labor as a whole will have been dealt yet another crushing blow. Should they win, perhaps the tide of union decline can be reversed in the future. At the very least, NYS public employees will be emboldened during any future contract negotiations with the state, and that, in and of itself would be a significant victory. We are potentially in a "last stand, last gasp" era for unions, and, make no mistake, this strike will affect ALL workers, especially the poorest. Myopia and selfishness is what management counts on to achieve its bottom-line. It takes real courage to stand up for those workers that can't-- especially the nonunionized working poor.
Billionaires are created from the blood and sweat of the poor, Mr. Bloomberg. Your ploy to be cast as the next Cesar Chavez or Mother Teresa is as dark and devious as it is readily transparent.
12:16 am - "We will not sell out the unborn..."
The world's only 24/7 subway system is asleep. The city comptroller's office projects that a half billion dollars will be lost during each day of the strike. 
Q: “Wow, a strike! What a great idea!”
A: Yes. It is a great idea for the union (Transit Workers Union – Local 100). It cripples the city’s economy at the most critical time of the year. The last transit workers’ strike was during the summer (of 1980), which made for a much more forgiving pedestrian commute and created nowhere near the same magnitude of commercial losses.
Q: “But wait-- isn’t striking by public employees illegal under New York State law?”
A1: Yes, but so was using an “whites-only” restroom under state laws in the South at one point in not-too-distant American history.
A2: Yes, but the law (the Taylor Law) has been broken successfully, on multiple occasions, by striking sanitation workers, teachers, and yes, even transit workers themselves in 1980. At the heart of this law is a desire to protect the public from strikes by essential public employees, while simultaneously protecting the rights of public employees to unionize and retain the right to engage management in collective bargaining conducted “in good faith.” The fundamental flaw of this law, however, lies in the fact that management incurs no sanctions or fines for refusal to negotiate. In fact, many public unions (including teachers, police officers) have worked for years at a time under the terms of expired contracts. The Taylor Law is fundamentally flawed—it enjoins strikes while not offering any pressure on management to negotiate. It has a precedent of being easily and successfully broken by past strikers, at devastating peril for the community at large, making one wonder what purpose it actually serves.
Q: “Isn’t it pretty lame that FOX 5 local news keeps referring to the strike as ‘the illegal transit strike,’ and that the only people we hear from on any televised media are Ed Koch, Mike Bloomberg, disgruntled business owners and commuters, and ambivalent strikers?
A: Yes. That is pretty lame. I mean, FOX is one thing, but the lack of parity in strike coverage can be found across the board.
Q: “How does the rest of organized labor feel about this? Are they somehow invested in this struggle, too?”
A: Well, TWU-International has been steadfastly opposed to the strike from the outset, mainly to protect its wallet from the fines being levied against the Local 100. Still, other public employee unions have expressed support for the action, and with good reason. Cutting benefits for future employees has been a common management tactic in quelling several recent strikes, most notably the grocery workers in California a couple years back. And there has been great concern that cutting back pension and health benefits for transit workers would set a precedent for future cutbacks for all public employees statewide. So, yes, every state employee should be invested in this struggle, as should all of organized labor.
Q: “Should a discussion on pension benefits even be part of these negotiations?”
A: Yes—and no. The discussion is legal, and part of contract resolution can involve a joint management-union petition to the State Legislature for pension changes. However, pension changes are considered a nonmandatory aspect of contract negotiation, and, as such, cannot be the sticking point in negotiations (City of New Rochelle vs. Local 273 of the International Association of Fire Fighters). The State Legislature is the body that controls such “nonmandatory” aspects of public employees’ contracts, and both the Democrat-led Assembly and Republican-led Senate agree that collective bargaining is neither an appropriate nor a legal venue for such discussion.
(Interestingly, both Houses agreed to “more pension benefits” for some transit workers in the form of a reduction in retirement age—from 55 to 50—for future hires)
Q: “Let’s talk turkey. What can’t the two sides agree on?”
A: Management (Metropolitan Transit Authority) contends that they must reign in their payout to pension plans for future hires in anticipation of a $1 billion deficit in 2009.
Labor (TWU-Local 100) contends that there is no excuse for a contract which cuts back benefits when the MTA had a $1+ billion surplus in 2005.
The MTA asked for a 200% increase in the amount that new workers contribute to their pensions (from 2% to 6%), which would save them an estimated $20 million over the next 3 years, according to the NYTimes. Doing the math, we find that this would help them deal with a whopping 2% of their projected deficit problem in 2009.
(Of course, as time goes on and new hires form more of the transit work force, more money would be saved per year, but as a matter of dealing with an impending [projected] deficit, it seems a rather silly strategy, especially considering the half billion dollars lost daily by city during a transit strike.)
Q: “I’ve heard that transit workers make more than the average NYC worker. Why should I have any sympathy for them?”
A: The average transit worker salary is $50,000+ and the retirement age is 55. Seems pretty cushy. But the unique occupational/environmental health risks faced by these workers should figure into any analysis of their earnings. Physical abuse, verbal abuse, fumes, rats, chipped paint, strange leaks, lack of adequate bathroom or lunch facilities—the list goes on…
Q: “So what’s the final word?”
A: It seems that the proposed pension contribution hike would have done little to curb the MTA’s impending budget “crisis,” and to force a strike over such a matter (especially when the matter properly falls within Albany’s jurisdiction), especially in a budget surplus year was irresponsible. It seems that the union could have stayed at the bargaining table longer, though, too—especially after realizing the extent to which the MTA was willing to concede as reflected in their “final” midnight offer.
Both sides are at fault, but ultimately, I think, a victorious stand against the pension contribution hike can set an important precedent, not only for public employees statewide, but for all organized labor in any state. I think it shows a great deal of conviction that the current members of TWU-Local 100 are unwilling to “sell out the unborn,” (that is, secure raises and benefits for themselves at the expense of their future members), and I wish them the best of luck in their mission.
Q: "Wait, wait, wait...can we review the math one last time?"
A: Well, since you asked nicely...
$20 million in pension savings over the next 3 years = 2% of projected deficit in 2009
$20 million in pension savings over the next 3 years VS. $500 million in lost revenue for each day of the strike
Maybe NYCers can pool together some saved subway fares and purchase calculators for the negotiating parties.
Nov. 16th, 2005
03:22 pm - Funny Ha Ha?
Is there anything funny on TV anymore?
Arrested Development - cancelled
Chappelle's Show - on permanent vacation
The Simpsons - persistent vegetative state
Family Guy - are their good writers on permanent vacation?
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - still good, but far too proud, too self-important
Saturday Night Live - not fair to beat a long-dead horse, i suppose, but when you rely on musical guests for laughs, well, that says something...
Seriously, is there anything funny on TV anymore?
Oct. 22nd, 2005
01:15 am - More Reason to Like This Series...
"I sit at the head of the table," he said, "so I'm always able to get a word in - sometimes even two. Ozzie respects the whole G.M. title thing, but not a whole lot. He tells me when I'm wrong. Sometimes I defer and sometimes he defers. But we always meet at the same spot afterward. Usually, it's the hotel bar."
- Ken Williams, GM of the Chicago White Sox, talking about his relationship with his former teammate, Manager Ozzie Guillen in this interesting article.
Oct. 20th, 2005
03:05 pm - Curse Schmurse...
Over forty some odd years, the Houston Astros have had to endure a lot.
(And I'm not just talking about all those tough playoff losses-- remember those hideous uniforms in the '80s?)
Kudos to Houston for not being a city of annoying whiners and lunatics obsessed with jealousy, loathing, and fantastical curses.
Also, kudos to the Astros for sporting excellent facial hair, even if some tyrannical onlookers might disapprove.
Oct. 17th, 2005
06:46 pm - Many Reasons To Oppose Harriet Miers
Except the favorite of Jon Stuart and every liberal Internet blogger...
"...she has no judicial experience!"
Earl Warren didn't. William Rehnquist didn't. Together, they became the two most influential Chief Justices of this past half-century, figureheads for the liberal strike and conservative counterstrike, respectively.
John Jay didn't. John Marshall didn't. Each is integral to constitutional law as it exists today-- Jay penned several of the Federalist papers and Marshall oversaw some of the early landmark decisions of the Court (Marbury v. Madison, McCulloch v. Maryland, etc).
Oct. 7th, 2005
08:20 pm - Swept Away
Hahahahaha...
Now if only the rain would stop so the Yanks could get their asses handed to them as well...
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